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Scientist from th𝕴e Wissenschaftler of Münster have analysed the statistics of the German Bundesliga thoroughly and could characterise a football match as a Poisson-Process and like that made football results calculable. The crucial finding of the scientists is that goals in football are a product of coincidence. Goals, however, aren’t a sole game of dice but are influenced by the technical abilities of the players, the so called performance level, of both teams.
ꦦIn the Bundesliga a typical outcome of match is determined of coincidence by 86%. 𝕴14% are no coincidence and distinct a top team from a potential relegation team.
Stunning: All teams in the Bundeslig🐎a have about the same conversion of chances.
Home teams score more goals on average. Average 1,66 home and 1,20 away goals. There is an overall home advantage but no evidence that in addition to that teams perform especially well at home. Thus, ho꧙me strength is a myth.
Typically 3 goals are scored in a match. To be precise, the number of goals has d🥃ecreased over time and now amountꦗs to 2,8.
Rather not. 46 % of all wins ar🐓e based upon a one-goal-margin.
No. Only about 25% of matches result ins draw. By implication 75% of matches have🐎 a winner!
Yes, but since the middle of the 80s, the number of away wins is constantly ge𒅌tting bigg🌱er. While during the 70s distinctively more than 20% of matches resulted ins away win, that figure already amounted to 33% in the season of 2010/2011.
Extraordinary: On the last two match days about 20% more goals are scored than on average. So: Bet on higher result📖s!
The goal differente of past matches is especially informative for the purpose of predictions. I🅷t is significantly more informative than the number of points. The expected amount of goals, on the other hand, is quite similar among all teams.
Goalscoring opportunities are a lot more informative💛 for the sake of prognosis. Good teams show a slightly better conve🍌rsion.
The market v♛alue of a team as determined before the start of the season is extremely strongly correlated with their actual performance. Rule of thumb: Doubling of the market value = 10 additional points or a goal difference increased by 16 goals.
A se𓆏ason-specific average Performance level of a team does exist. (Performance level = goal differenc𝔉e that a team scores against an average opponent)
The coincidence averages out during the course of the season. The longer the season has already progressed, the more reliable g𒈔oals♉ and opportunities display the performances of teams.
A football match is dominated by effects of coincidence. Additionally𒈔 the performance level of offense and defense are correlated.
Without effects of coincidence, the difference of goalscoring opportunities would perfec♓tly predict the performance level.
The goal d🍸ifference is determined by effects of coincidence with 86% (match day) or 29% (season) ཧon average.
Fluctuations of performance levels from match day to match day are, therefore, not statistically relevant. The changes of performances levels take place during the summer breakꦗ and only rare
There are no positive series. The concept of a “streak“ is, thus, void. Unfortunately this does not apply for negative series -ᩚᩚᩚᩚᩚᩚᩚᩚᩚ𒀱ᩚᩚᩚ those do exist. As Andi Brehme famously put it: “When you got shit on your foot, you got shit on your foot!“
In the cont♔ext of statistical preciseness, the conversion of effec🤡tive goalscoring opportunities is identical for all teams. For that reason the goalscoring opportunities are quite significant for the prediction of goals.
The performance of promoted teams is aꦬstonishingly well predetermined. Significant deviations from ꧋the lower half of the table (goal difference: -13 +/- 8) are, thus, extremely rare. For that reason a „march through“ is very special.
With the help of the market value and the effective differente of goals𝔍coring opportuniti💝es you can come closer to the perfect prediction of the second half of the season..
No. In fact only in half of the cases the best team wins and b𒊎ecomes German champion at the end of the season.
No.ജ Statistically, there are no bogey team. The scientist’s search for bogey teams was negative. Looking at it statistically t𒊎he effect is under 10%.
Of course♛ we know! But🤡 it is enough for today, we will let you know another rime.